Renewable electricity capacity planning with uncertainty at multiple scales

Abstract We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite social planning that compute optimal capacity investments for hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results risk energy shortage. The optimize the expected cost expansion operation allowing hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, thermal plant, as well battery storage smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is integration uncertain seasonal hydroelectric supply short-term variability two-stage stochastic programming framework. are applied to data from New Zealand used estimate costs moving 100% by 2035. also explore outcomes obtained when applying different forms CO 2 constraint limit respectively non-renewable capacity, generation, emissions on average, almost surely, or chance-constrained setting, show how our can be investigate merits proposed pumped-hydro scheme Zealand’s South Island.